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HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092007
0300 UTC SAT AUG 11 2007
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
10N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
15N 145W 34 X 3( 3) 38(41) 17(58) 3(61) X(61) X(61)
15N 145W 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22)
15N 145W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BUOY 50004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) 1(23)
BUOY 50004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8)
SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
BUOY 50002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 129N 1400W 34 92 5(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
12 129N 1400W 50 59 16(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75)
12 129N 1400W 64 30 16(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
24 134N 1423W 34 2 75(77) 10(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
24 134N 1423W 50 X 43(43) 13(56) 1(57) X(57) X(57) X(57)
24 134N 1423W 64 X 18(18) 10(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
36 139N 1446W 34 1 10(11) 51(62) 11(73) 3(76) X(76) X(76)
36 139N 1446W 50 X 2( 2) 27(29) 9(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39)
36 139N 1446W 64 X X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
48 144N 1469W 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 31(48) 14(62) X(62) X(62)
48 144N 1469W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 6(24) X(24) X(24)
48 144N 1469W 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
72 155N 1515W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 7(33) 1(34)
72 155N 1515W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10)
72 155N 1515W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
96 170N 1555W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15)
96 170N 1555W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
96 170N 1555W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 185N 1590W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
120 185N 1590W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 185N 1590W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 80 80 75 70 60 50 40
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:00 UTC