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HURRICANE FLOSSIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092007
1500 UTC FRI AUG 10 2007
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FLOSSIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
10N 145W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 24(32) 15(47) X(47) X(47)
15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15)
15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BUOY 50004 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 2(20)
BUOY 50004 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)
SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12)
KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
BUOY 50002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9)
HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 128N 1379W 34 86 8(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
12 128N 1379W 50 30 21(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
12 128N 1379W 64 7 6(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
24 131N 1403W 34 1 68(69) 13(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)
24 131N 1403W 50 X 26(26) 13(39) 1(40) X(40) 1(41) X(41)
24 131N 1403W 64 X 9( 9) 7(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
36 135N 1425W 34 X 8( 8) 50(58) 12(70) 2(72) X(72) X(72)
36 135N 1425W 50 X 1( 1) 21(22) 7(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30)
36 135N 1425W 64 X X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
48 139N 1447W 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 30(45) 14(59) 1(60) X(60)
48 139N 1447W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21)
48 139N 1447W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
72 149N 1497W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 8(34) 1(35)
72 149N 1497W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10)
72 149N 1497W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
96 165N 1550W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17)
96 165N 1550W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
96 165N 1550W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
120 180N 1590W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
120 180N 1590W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
120 180N 1590W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 65 70 70 65 60 55 45
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:00 UTC