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Tropical Storm DALILA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007
200 AM PDT WED JUL 25 2007
 
THE OVERALL CLOUD SIGNATURE ASSOCIATED WITH DALILA APPEARS A LITTLE
LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN 6 HOURS AGO. CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING AND
THE CONVECTIVE BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE IS
BROKEN.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS IN
THE 45-50 KT RANGE.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT BASED ON
THESE DATA.   
 
DALILA CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 330/7. THIS MOTION APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF
WEAKNESS WITHIN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  GLOBAL MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS WEAKNESS
WILL ERODE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO EXPAND
WESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDS THE WEST.  THE ECMWF...GFDL...AND GFDN
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED WEST AND TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOW IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT.  MOST OF THE RELIABLE TRACK MODELS NOW INDICATE A TURN
WESTWARD...AND SOME EVEN SHOW A MOTION A LITTLE SOUTH OF WEST
BEYOND DAY 4.  
 
DESPITE AN OTHERWISE GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...DALILA
APPEARS TO BE FEELING THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF STABLE AIR.  DALILA
MAY BE AT OR VERY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY.  STILL...THE CYCLONE HAS
ANOTHER DAY OR SO WITHIN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM
WATER.  THUS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR A LITTLE MORE
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT-TERM.  THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
INTENSIFICATION QUICKLY SHUTS BEYOND 36 HOURS AS DALILA IS FORECAST
TO MOVE OVER MUCH COOLER WATER.  INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
A BIT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE LOWER.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/0900Z 19.0N 111.0W    50 KT
 12HR VT     25/1800Z 19.7N 111.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     26/0600Z 20.6N 112.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     26/1800Z 21.4N 114.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     27/0600Z 22.2N 115.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     28/0600Z 23.5N 118.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     29/0600Z 24.0N 121.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     30/0600Z 24.0N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
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