ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007 800 PM PDT MON JUL 23 2007 THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE STRUCTURE OF DALILA THIS EVENING. DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT NEAR THE CENTER...CLOSE ENOUGH AT 00Z TO RESULT IN A T3.0...45 KT...DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION HAS RETREATED A BIT SINCE THEN. ON THE OTHER HAND...AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 1630 UTC SUGGESTED PEAK WINDS OF ONLY AROUND 30 KT. AS A COMPROMISE...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT. DALILA HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK AND MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 340/7. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A WEAK INVERTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF DALILA NEAR SOUTHERN BAJA...ERODING THE RIDGING THAT HAD BEEN STEERING THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION COULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 24-36 HOURS AS THE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTHWEST OF DALILA AND ENHANCES A SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CALLS FOR DALILA TO BEGIN TO FEEL DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND CURVE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THE GUIDANCE SUITE IS A LITTLE LESS CLUSTERED THAN IT WAS EARLIER TODAY...AND THE GFDN NOW SHOWS A TRACK VERY NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS SLOWLY DECREASING...AND SHOULD SOON PERMIT DALILA TO STRENGTHEN. BY 72 HOURS...HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE NEAR THE 26C SST ISOTHERM...WHEN A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE MODELS ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THEY WERE EARLIER...ALL PEAKING A LITTLE BELOW THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0300Z 16.1N 109.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 24/1200Z 17.1N 109.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 25/0000Z 18.1N 110.3W 40 KT 36HR VT 25/1200Z 19.0N 111.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 26/0000Z 19.8N 111.8W 50 KT 72HR VT 27/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 28/0000Z 23.5N 116.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 29/0000Z 24.5N 120.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:59 UTC