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Tropical Storm COSME (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007
200 AM PDT MON JUL 16 2007
 
COSME HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN EARLY THIS MORNING.  MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS
EXCELLENT BANDING FEATURES AND THE BEGINNING OF AN EYE.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 55 KT AND
THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9.  COSME HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE RIDGE WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...TURNING COSME MORE
WESTWARD.  NEARLY ALL OF THE AVAILABLE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE NOGAPS WHICH KEEPS THE CYCLONE
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS THE GFDL...
HWRF...GFS AND THE SUPERENSEMBLE CLOSELY AND INDICATES THAT COSME
WILL TURN MORE WESTWARD WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS BETWEEN THE FASTER GFDL AND
SLOWER GFS. 

SINCE COSME IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THE MAIN FACTOR CONTROLLING INTENSITY WILL BE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  COSME IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS NEAR 27C
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE SSTS
GRADUALLY COOL.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS COSME TO HURRICANE STRENGTH
WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF PEAK THE INTENSITY SLIGHTLY LOWER.  GIVEN
THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
FOLLOW THE SHIPS MODEL CLOSELY AND PREDICT A HURRICANE WITHIN 24
HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST INDICATES SLOW WEAKENING.  LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND AT THAT
TIME THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN MOST OF THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 13.8N 129.5W    55 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 14.4N 130.7W    60 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 14.9N 132.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 15.2N 134.4W    65 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 15.5N 136.7W    60 KT
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 16.2N 141.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 17.0N 146.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     21/0600Z 17.5N 151.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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