ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062007 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007 THE DEPRESSION CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION DEFINED BY A FEW CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS...BUT IT LACKS A CONVECTIVE INNER CORE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KNOTS IN ACCORD WITH LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...THE DEPRESSION IS HEADING TOWARD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT ARE MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING. THEREFORE...ONLY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF BOTH THE SHIPS MODEL AND CLIMATOLOGY. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WELL-ESTABLISHED EASTERLY FLOW IN THE DEEP TROPICS...A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 11.4N 127.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 11.6N 128.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 12.0N 130.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 12.5N 132.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 13.0N 133.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 13.5N 136.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 14.0N 138.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 14.5N 141.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:57 UTC