ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052007 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 14 2007 THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING...AND THE CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM 1346 UTC SHOWED UN-FLAGGED WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT. DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 30 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS...AS THE SYSTEM IS STEERED BY A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE UKMET MODEL...WHICH INITIALIZED THE CYCLONE THE BEST. DESPITE THE WARM 28 DEGREE CELSIUS WATER...10 TO 15 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR IS INHIBITING FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THE CYCLONE HAS ABOUT A 12 TO 24 HOUR WINDOW TO INTENSIFY TO STORM STRENGTH BEFORE ENCOUNTERING COOLER WATERS...WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 16.2N 116.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 16.7N 117.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 16.9N 120.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.8N 122.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 16.6N 123.7W 30 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 16.0N 126.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:56 UTC