ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042007 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 10 2007 DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT IT IS DISPLACED NORTH OF THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. STILL...IT IS ENOUGH TO HOLD THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IN TERMS OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST...THE DEPRESSION SEEMS TO HAVE EVERYTHING WORKING AGAINST IT INCLUDING PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...AND A DRY/STABLE AIRMASS. ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN A DAY OR SO. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BEEN EASY TO LOCATE IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT THE LAST FEW FRAMES INDICATE THE INITIAL MOTION...300/9...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE OVERALL TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. AS THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 18.3N 120.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 18.8N 121.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 19.5N 122.9W 25 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 20.1N 124.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 12/0600Z 20.6N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER RHOME NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:56 UTC