ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032007 800 PM PDT MON JUN 11 2007 AFTER FADING EARLIER...A NEW BALL OF CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE DEPRESSION. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THIS NEW BURST OF CONVECTION. THE CENTER POSITION IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THIS SYSTEM POSSIBLY HAVING MULTIPLE SWIRLS WITHIN THE LARGER CIRCULATION ENVELOPE. HOWEVER...THE BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED FARTHER TO THE NORTH...SUPPORTED BY A 2034Z AQUA MICROWAVE PASS...SO THE DEPRESSION IS REPOSITIONED POLEWARD ON THIS PACKAGE. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ON THE DEPRESSION ARE UNCHANGED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO STORM-STRENGTH. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE DEPRESSION HAS CROSSED THE 79F ISOTHERM WITH COOLER WATERS NOT FAR AWAY. HOWEVER...IT WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE SYSTEM TO BRIEFLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM... PERHAPS WITH HELP FROM THE OVERNIGHT DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED SOMEWHAT FROM EARLIER IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. A LONGER-TERM MOTION OF THE SYSTEM IS ABOUT 315/9. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA IS TEMPORARILY CAUSING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...INITIATING THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION. THE WEAKNESS FILLS IN TOMORROW AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS...WHICH SHOULD FORCE A WESTWARD TURN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE CENTER RELOCATION...BUT IN LINE WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL... UKMET...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 17.3N 111.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 18.0N 112.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 13/0000Z 18.4N 114.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 13/1200Z 18.6N 115.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/0000Z 18.7N 116.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 15/0000Z 18.5N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:56 UTC