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HURRICANE NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
2100 UTC FRI NOV 02 2007
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4
NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS
...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 43(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 54(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) 34(34) 30(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22)
EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 18(18) 42(60) X(60) X(60) X(60)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 24(24) 13(37) X(37) X(37) X(37)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) 66(66) 13(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) 22(22) 16(38) X(38) X(38) X(38)
HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X 7( 7) 78(85) 2(87) X(87) X(87) X(87)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) 49(49) 4(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) 19(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 51(51) 28(79) X(79) X(79) X(79)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) 16(16) 30(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) 65(65) 12(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) 25(25) 17(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
EASTPORT ME 34 X 2( 2) 61(63) 6(69) X(69) X(69) X(69)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) 26(26) 8(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 4( 4) 47(51) 2(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) 16(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
BAR HARBOR ME 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X 4( 4) 27(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
PORTLAND ME 34 X 7( 7) 20(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
PORTLAND ME 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CONCORD NH 34 X 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
BOSTON MA 34 X 16(16) 12(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28)
BOSTON MA 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HYANNIS MA 34 X 34(34) 18(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52)
HYANNIS MA 50 X 6( 6) 11(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
HYANNIS MA 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X 47(47) 17(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X 10(10) 15(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X 21(21) 9(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HARTFORD CT 34 X 11(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X 22(22) 5(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
NEWARK NJ 34 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
TRENTON NJ 34 X 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
DOVER DE 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 2 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NORFOLK VA 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 345N 714W 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 345N 714W 50 77 7(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
12 345N 714W 64 27 8(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
24 394N 693W 34 2 89(91) 3(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
24 394N 693W 50 X 61(61) 11(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
24 394N 693W 64 X 22(22) 9(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
36 447N 657W 34 X 1( 1) 75(76) 7(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)
36 447N 657W 50 X X( X) 36(36) 13(49) X(49) X(49) X(49)
36 447N 657W 64 X X( X) 13(13) 8(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
48 506N 611W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 60(61) 9(70) X(70) X(70)
48 506N 611W 50 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 9(33) X(33) X(33)
48 506N 611W 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11)
72 610N 520W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 40(40) 7(47) X(47)
72 610N 520W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 4(17) X(17)
72 610N 520W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
96 680N 460W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) X(19)
96 680N 460W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
96 680N 460W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70 75 80 65 60 30 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN
NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC