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HURRICANE NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
0300 UTC FRI NOV 02 2007
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS
...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 1(32) X(32)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) 1(47) X(47)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14)
BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 56(57) 1(58) X(58)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) X(24) X(24)
PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 52(61) 1(62) X(62)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) X(27) X(27)
EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 52(55) 1(56) X(56)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) X(22) X(22)
SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 33(41) X(41) X(41)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 25(25) 43(68) 1(69) X(69)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 29(34) X(34) X(34)
HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 41(41) 24(65) X(65) X(65)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 16(28) X(28) X(28)
YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 47(59) X(59) X(59)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) X(24) X(24)
MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 33(54) X(54) X(54)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19)
ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 20(20) 23(43) X(43) X(43)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14)
EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 12(30) X(30) X(30)
BAR HARBOR ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19)
AUGUSTA ME 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 24(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 295N 747W 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 295N 747W 50 72 5(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77)
12 295N 747W 64 37 7(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
24 330N 725W 34 4 82(86) 4(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
24 330N 725W 50 X 38(38) 7(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
24 330N 725W 64 X 11(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
36 375N 695W 34 X 2( 2) 63(65) 11(76) X(76) X(76) X(76)
36 375N 695W 50 X X( X) 23(23) 10(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34)
36 375N 695W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
48 425N 665W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 57(59) 13(72) X(72) X(72)
48 425N 665W 50 X X( X) X( X) 23(23) 9(32) X(32) X(32)
48 425N 665W 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13)
72 530N 585W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 43(43) 10(53) X(53)
72 530N 585W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 5(20) X(20)
72 530N 585W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
96 625N 500W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) X(32)
96 625N 500W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12)
96 625N 500W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 75 65 65 75 70 60 0
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC