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TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
0300 UTC THU NOV 01 2007
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 9(25)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 5(35)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 3(13)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 4(37)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13)
ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 4(34)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11)
BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) 3(28)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 22(31) 1(32)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11)
EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) 1(32)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10)
SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 25(41) X(41)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 13(25) X(25)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8)
HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) 1(17)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 1(12)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10)
EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
W PALM BEACH 34 5 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
MIAMI FL 34 11 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
MARATHON FL 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
KEY WEST FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) X(13) X(13)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 18 27(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 75 19(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 20 38(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ANDROS 34 93 3(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
ANDROS 50 55 9(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64)
ANDROS 64 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GREAT EXUMA 34 25 10(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35)
SAN SALVADOR 34 6 11(17) 3(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
MAYAGUANA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAMAGUEY 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 243N 783W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 243N 783W 50 57 8(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
12 243N 783W 64 8 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
24 265N 770W 34 18 59(77) 7(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
24 265N 770W 50 1 32(33) 7(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
24 265N 770W 64 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
36 295N 740W 34 X 4( 4) 45(49) 8(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58)
36 295N 740W 50 X X( X) 15(15) 5(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
36 295N 740W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
48 335N 705W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) 11(47) X(47) X(47)
48 335N 705W 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15)
48 335N 705W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
72 420N 630W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 10(41) 1(42)
72 420N 630W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) X(15)
72 420N 630W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
96 500N 535W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 10(34)
96 500N 535W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12)
96 500N 535W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
120 550N 425W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23)
120 550N 425W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
120 550N 425W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 60 60 55 55 60 60 60
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC