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TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
2100 UTC TUE OCT 30 2007
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 17(24)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 17(29)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 9(17) 1(18)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 3( 4) 15(19) 15(34) 3(37) X(37) X(37)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ANDROS 34 4 7(11) 15(26) 9(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 34 2 1( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
CAMAGUEY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 216N 788W 34 20 11(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
12 216N 788W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
12 216N 788W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 226N 792W 34 14 13(27) 8(35) 2(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38)
24 226N 792W 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
24 226N 792W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 241N 788W 34 3 11(14) 19(33) 5(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39)
36 241N 788W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
36 241N 788W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
48 268N 772W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 7(33) X(33) X(33)
48 268N 772W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
48 268N 772W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
72 340N 700W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 9(30) 1(31)
72 340N 700W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10)
72 340N 700W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
96 410N 630W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 9(33)
96 410N 630W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12)
96 410N 630W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
120 485N 565W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18)
120 485N 565W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
120 485N 565W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 35 40 45 50 60 60
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC