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TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1500 UTC TUE OCT 30 2007
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14)
YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11)
MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11)
MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MARATHON FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 1(23)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 13(24) 5(29) X(29) X(29)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 1 4( 5) 27(32) 16(48) 4(52) X(52) X(52)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ANDROS 34 2 13(15) 31(46) 10(56) 2(58) X(58) X(58)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
GREAT EXUMA 34 2 5( 7) 15(22) 7(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 1 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CAMAGUEY 34 38 16(54) 5(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59)
CAMAGUEY 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 214N 783W 34 21 19(40) 7(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48)
12 214N 783W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
12 214N 783W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 225N 787W 34 8 22(30) 18(48) 3(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
24 225N 787W 50 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
24 225N 787W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 240N 786W 34 2 13(15) 29(44) 7(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52)
36 240N 786W 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
36 240N 786W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
48 262N 774W 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 22(38) 7(45) X(45) X(45)
48 262N 774W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13)
48 262N 774W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
72 325N 710W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 10(35) X(35)
72 325N 710W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11)
72 325N 710W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
96 390N 645W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 9(33)
96 390N 645W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13)
96 390N 645W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
120 465N 585W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17)
120 465N 585W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
120 465N 585W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 40 50 50 55 60 60
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC