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TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
0900 UTC TUE OCT 30 2007
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 6(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
W PALM BEACH 34 1 5( 6) 12(18) 9(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
MIAMI FL 34 1 7( 8) 15(23) 8(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MARATHON FL 34 1 5( 6) 9(15) 5(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
KEY WEST FL 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13)
FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 1 9(10) 21(31) 13(44) 5(49) X(49) X(49)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 10 28(38) 23(61) 8(69) 5(74) X(74) X(74)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 4( 4) 14(18) 8(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ANDROS 34 33 33(66) 12(78) 2(80) 2(82) X(82) X(82)
ANDROS 50 1 16(17) 14(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
ANDROS 64 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
GREAT EXUMA 34 47 10(57) 5(62) 2(64) 1(65) X(65) X(65)
GREAT EXUMA 50 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN SALVADOR 34 12 7(19) 7(26) 5(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
HAVANA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CIENFUEGOS 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15)
CAMAGUEY 34 21 22(43) 5(48) 2(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
CAMAGUEY 50 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 222N 774W 34 74 12(86) 2(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
12 222N 774W 50 28 13(41) 2(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
12 222N 774W 64 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
24 233N 782W 34 44 30(74) 6(80) 2(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83)
24 233N 782W 50 5 29(34) 9(43) 1(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45)
24 233N 782W 64 X 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
36 245N 785W 34 12 36(48) 19(67) 6(73) 2(75) X(75) X(75)
36 245N 785W 50 X 11(11) 20(31) 7(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39)
36 245N 785W 64 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
48 260N 778W 34 3 14(17) 26(43) 15(58) 6(64) 1(65) X(65)
48 260N 778W 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) 14(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27)
48 260N 778W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
72 310N 724W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 7(25) X(25)
72 310N 724W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
72 310N 724W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
96 370N 665W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 7(21)
96 370N 665W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
96 370N 665W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
120 450N 580W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
120 450N 580W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
120 450N 580W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55 60 65 60 45 45 45
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC