ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
1500 UTC MON OCT 29 2007
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 1(15)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 1(15)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 9(22) 4(26) 1(27)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 16(31) 11(42) 2(44) 1(45)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ANDROS 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 13(28) 9(37) 2(39) 1(40)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GREAT EXUMA 34 2 19(21) 24(45) 5(50) 5(55) 2(57) 1(58)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN SALVADOR 34 3 26(29) 21(50) 6(56) 3(59) X(59) 1(60)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 37 20(57) 5(62) 1(63) X(63) 1(64) X(64)
MAYAGUANA 50 1 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GRAND TURK 34 8 4(12) 2(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) 1(17)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 1(14) X(14)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12)
LES CAYES 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
PUERTO PLATA 34 3 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 212N 737W 34 75 7(82) 1(83) X(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84)
12 212N 737W 50 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
12 212N 737W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 224N 744W 34 29 34(63) 6(69) 1(70) 3(73) X(73) X(73)
24 224N 744W 50 X 9( 9) 5(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16)
24 224N 744W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
36 234N 754W 34 3 28(31) 21(52) 4(56) 5(61) 1(62) 1(63)
36 234N 754W 50 X 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) 2(18) X(18) 1(19)
36 234N 754W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
48 243N 767W 34 X 7( 7) 22(29) 11(40) 8(48) 2(50) 1(51)
48 243N 767W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16)
48 243N 767W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
72 260N 765W 34 X 2( 2) 13(15) 16(31) 10(41) 4(45) 1(46)
72 260N 765W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 2(14) 1(15)
72 260N 765W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
96 280N 750W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 11(20) 6(26) 2(28)
96 280N 750W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
96 280N 750W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
120 300N 725W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14)
120 300N 725W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
120 300N 725W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40 45 50 50 45 40 35
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC