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TROPICAL STORM NOEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
2100 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 3(13)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 6(18) 2(20)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 10(16) 5(21) 1(22)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 12(28) 6(34) 3(37)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 12(23) 6(29) 3(32)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)
MAYAGUANA 34 1 6( 7) 11(18) 3(21) 6(27) 2(29) 2(31)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
GRAND TURK 34 2 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 2(16) 2(18) 1(19)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 6(18) 3(21) 1(22)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 25(26) 23(49) 3(52) 2(54) 1(55) 1(56)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X 6( 6) 16(22) 2(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 3(10) 1(11) X(11)
KINGSTON 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 4(11) X(11) 1(12)
LES CAYES 34 29 23(52) 4(56) 1(57) X(57) 1(58) X(58)
LES CAYES 50 6 19(25) 2(27) X(27) X(27) 1(28) X(28)
LES CAYES 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 68 10(78) 2(80) X(80) 1(81) X(81) X(81)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 13 10(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
CAPE BEATA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CAPE BEATA 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 4 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 179N 728W 34 83 5(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 1(89) X(89)
12 179N 728W 50 37 6(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
12 179N 728W 64 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
24 191N 740W 34 14 46(60) 7(67) 1(68) 1(69) X(69) 1(70)
24 191N 740W 50 1 26(27) 6(33) 1(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35)
24 191N 740W 64 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
36 202N 750W 34 1 25(26) 25(51) 3(54) 1(55) 2(57) X(57)
36 202N 750W 50 X 5( 5) 17(22) 2(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26)
36 202N 750W 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
48 214N 758W 34 1 6( 7) 23(30) 9(39) 5(44) 2(46) 1(47)
48 214N 758W 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 3(15) 1(16) X(16)
48 214N 758W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
72 235N 760W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) 11(27) 7(34) 2(36)
72 235N 760W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11)
72 235N 760W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
96 260N 750W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 11(13) 9(22) 4(26)
96 260N 750W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8)
96 260N 750W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
120 290N 735W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 5(16)
120 290N 735W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
120 290N 735W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 55 60 60 45 50 50 50
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC