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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN (Text)


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007               
1500 UTC SUN OCT 28 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   4(11)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)   5(17)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   7(15)   5(20)
MARATHON FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   7(14)   5(19)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   4(15)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   2( 9)
 
TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   6(15)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)   5(18)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   8(12)   7(19)   5(24)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)   4(15)   5(20)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   5(14)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)   3(10)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   7(15)   5(20)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   6(15)   5(20)
ISLE OF PINES  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  12(17)   9(26)   4(30)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
CIENFUEGOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)  11(28)   3(31)   3(34)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   5( 5)  12(17)   6(23)   3(26)   2(28)   1(29)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   6(16)   4(20)
GRAND CAYMAN   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  10(19)   5(24)   4(28)   3(31)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
KINGSTON       34  X   3( 3)  12(15)   5(20)   3(23)   3(26)   3(29)
KINGSTON       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
LES CAYES      34  3  19(22)   4(26)   1(27)   2(29)   1(30)   1(31)
LES CAYES      50  X   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  2   3( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   1(11)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   2( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 170N  734W 34 19  11(30)   1(31)   X(31)   1(32)   1(33)   1(34)
 12 170N  734W 50  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 12 170N  734W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 180N  750W 34  1  23(24)  12(36)   1(37)   2(39)   1(40)   2(42)
 24 180N  750W 50  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)
 24 180N  750W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 190N  765W 34  X   6( 6)  22(28)   8(36)   4(40)   2(42)   2(44)
 36 190N  765W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)
 36 190N  765W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
 48 200N  780W 34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  17(27)   7(34)   5(39)   2(41)
 48 200N  780W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   2(12)   1(13)
 48 200N  780W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 210N  795W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)  12(25)   8(33)   3(36)
 72 210N  795W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   2(11)   1(12)
 72 210N  795W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
 
 
 96 220N  800W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)  12(19)   9(28)   3(31)
 96 220N  800W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)
 96 220N  800W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
120 240N  780W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   9(13)   7(20)   5(25)
120 240N  780W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)
120 240N  780W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      45      50      55      50      45
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                

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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:53 UTC