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Tropical Storm MELISSA (Text)

ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 144N  287W 34 47  13(60)   X(60)   1(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
 12 144N  287W 50  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 12 144N  287W 64  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 24 148N  305W 34  4  39(43)   8(51)   X(51)   X(51)   X(51)   1(52)
 24 148N  305W 50  X   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 24 148N  305W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 36 155N  327W 34  X   7( 7)  26(33)   5(38)   1(39)   1(40)   X(40)
 36 155N  327W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 36 155N  327W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 162N  348W 34  X   1( 1)   7( 8)  12(20)   5(25)   X(25)   1(26)
 48 162N  348W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 48 162N  348W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 175N  385W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   3(14)   1(15)
 72 175N  385W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 72 175N  385W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 190N  420W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   1(10)
 96 190N  420W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 96 190N  420W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 210N  450W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
120 210N  450W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 210N  450W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     35     40      40      35      30      25      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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