ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007 1100 PM EDT MON SEP 10 2007 DESPITE A RATHER HARSH UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT...GABRIELLE IS HANGING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF STREAM. EARLIER IR IMAGERY AND LIGHTENING DATA SHOWED SOME RESURGENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM BUT RECENTLY THIS ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND IS BEING SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CENTER. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KT AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS NO VELOCITIES GREATER THAN 30 KT. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT. THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CENTER ALONG THE NORTHERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM AND THE CYCLONE COULD PASS OVER ONE OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM CORE RINGS. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD FAVOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING...THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. IN 24 HOURS OR SO...THE GFS SHOWS THE SYSTEM INTERACTING WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND GABRIELLE IS LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THAT CYCLONE AFTER 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE FORWARD SPEED IS INCREASING AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 075/17. GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND TO THE NORTH OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE U.K. MET AND GFS TRACKS... BUT CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 38.1N 68.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 39.1N 65.9W 30 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 40.5N 61.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 12/1200Z 43.0N 56.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 13/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:46 UTC