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TROPICAL STORM DEAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
2100 UTC TUE AUG 14 2007
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
CURACAO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 15(31)
PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12)
PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 14(31)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13)
SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 12(33)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 12(36)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 9(33)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 7(37)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 20(28) 6(34)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 3(14)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 21(31) 6(37)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 21(36) 6(42)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 3(16)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 9(39)
AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 5(18)
AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 21(38) 5(43)
DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 3(19)
DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 19(38) 4(42)
MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 2(18)
MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 16(34) 4(38)
SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 2(16)
SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7)
SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 14(28) 3(31)
SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13)
SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 11(35) 2(37)
BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15)
BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6)
GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) 3(20)
GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) 2(15)
TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11)
PORT OF SPAIN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10)
JUANGRIEGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 117N 436W 34 32 12(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
12 117N 436W 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
12 117N 436W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 120N 469W 34 1 34(35) 11(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
24 120N 469W 50 X 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
24 120N 469W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
36 123N 502W 34 X 1( 1) 34(35) 12(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48)
36 123N 502W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
36 123N 502W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
48 126N 535W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 13(46) 1(47) X(47)
48 126N 535W 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17)
48 126N 535W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
72 140N 595W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 26(27) 13(40) 3(43)
72 140N 595W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 7(17) 2(19)
72 140N 595W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
96 155N 645W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 10(36)
96 155N 645W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 6(17)
96 155N 645W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
120 175N 695W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21)
120 175N 695W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)
120 175N 695W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40 45 50 60 70 85 95
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB
NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:43 UTC