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Hurricane DEAN (Text)

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HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042007
1500 UTC FRI AUG 17 2007
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MARTINIQUE...DOMINICA...
AND GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.  THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...NEVIS...ST KITTS...BARBUDA...ST.
MAARTEN...AND ANGUILLA AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA HAS
BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER.  A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CABO BEATA
TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER.
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI FROM THE HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
BORDER TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
AT 11AM AST...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA AND
ITS DEPENDENCIES HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING
JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  62.6W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  18 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  964 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  50SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE  60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N  62.6W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  61.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.0N  65.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.8N  69.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  50SE  30SW  75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE  75SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.7N  72.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  50SE  30SW  75NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE  75SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.5N  75.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  50SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  80SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.5N  82.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  50SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  80SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 21.5N  88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N  94.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N  62.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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