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TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
1500 UTC FRI NOV 17 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 1(10)
MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10)
L CARDENAS 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) 1(12) X(12)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ACAPULCO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 147N 1025W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 147N 1025W 50 48 3(51) 1(52) X(52) X(52) X(52) X(52)
12 147N 1025W 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
24 155N 1030W 34 32 23(55) 4(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
24 155N 1030W 50 3 10(13) 2(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
24 155N 1030W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
36 165N 1040W 34 2 12(14) 15(29) 4(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35)
36 165N 1040W 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
36 165N 1040W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
48 170N 1050W 34 1 3( 4) 9(13) 8(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25)
48 170N 1050W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
48 170N 1050W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
72 180N 1070W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 2(13) 1(14)
72 180N 1070W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
72 180N 1070W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
96 190N 1090W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9)
96 190N 1090W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
96 190N 1090W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
120 200N 1120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
120 200N 1120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
120 200N 1120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50 45 40 35 30 25 20
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 17-Nov-2006 14:40:04 UTC