ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 2100 UTC THU NOV 16 2006 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 102.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 3(14) 1(15) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 11(20) 2(22) 1(23) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 1 X( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 8(18) 3(21) X(21) L CARDENAS 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) 4(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) L CARDENAS 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) ACAPULCO 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P MALDONADO 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 2(15) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 145N 1028W 34 95 2(97) X(97) X(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) 12 145N 1028W 50 53 10(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) 12 145N 1028W 64 19 4(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) 24 152N 1034W 34 48 27(75) 4(79) 2(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) 24 152N 1034W 50 6 24(30) 6(36) X(36) 1(37) X(37) X(37) 24 152N 1034W 64 1 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 36 159N 1041W 34 4 35(39) 16(55) 6(61) 2(63) X(63) 1(64) 36 159N 1041W 50 X 8( 8) 9(17) 3(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) 36 159N 1041W 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 48 170N 1050W 34 1 7( 8) 17(25) 14(39) 5(44) 2(46) X(46) 48 170N 1050W 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) 48 170N 1050W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 72 195N 1065W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 14(20) 3(23) 2(25) 72 195N 1065W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 72 195N 1065W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 96 210N 1085W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 1(13) 96 210N 1085W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 96 210N 1085W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 220N 1110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 120 220N 1110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 120 220N 1110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65 60 55 50 45 40 30 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 16-Nov-2006 20:40:04 UTC