ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 1500 UTC THU NOV 16 2006 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) X(11) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 4(18) X(18) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 14(27) 2(29) X(29) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 11(25) 1(26) 1(27) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) L CARDENAS 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 7(19) 5(24) 1(25) X(25) L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ZIHUATANEJO 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 5(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) ACAPULCO 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P MALDONADO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 9(11) 5(16) 2(18) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 137N 1030W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 137N 1030W 50 76 8(84) 1(85) 1(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 12 137N 1030W 64 44 13(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) 24 145N 1035W 34 67 20(87) 4(91) 1(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) 24 145N 1035W 50 16 37(53) 7(60) 2(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) 24 145N 1035W 64 3 23(26) 6(32) 1(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) 36 155N 1040W 34 10 41(51) 20(71) 5(76) 3(79) X(79) 1(80) 36 155N 1040W 50 1 15(16) 19(35) 6(41) 3(44) X(44) X(44) 36 155N 1040W 64 X 5( 5) 11(16) 3(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) 48 165N 1050W 34 2 12(14) 25(39) 15(54) 9(63) 1(64) X(64) 48 165N 1050W 50 X 2( 2) 9(11) 11(22) 6(28) X(28) X(28) 48 165N 1050W 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) 72 185N 1065W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 19(36) 4(40) 1(41) 72 185N 1065W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13) 72 185N 1065W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 96 200N 1075W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 14(18) 5(23) 1(24) 96 200N 1075W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 96 200N 1075W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 120 215N 1095W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) 120 215N 1095W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 120 215N 1095W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 85 80 75 70 65 50 40 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 16-Nov-2006 14:40:04 UTC