ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006
2100 UTC TUE NOV 14 2006
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SERGIO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 3(18)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 7(15) 3(18)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 8(10) 6(16) 1(17)
L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14)
ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 130N 1047W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
12 130N 1047W 50 40 8(48) 5(53) 3(56) 2(58) 1(59) X(59)
12 130N 1047W 64 7 7(14) 3(17) 2(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21)
24 131N 1048W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
24 131N 1048W 50 29 10(39) 6(45) 4(49) 2(51) 1(52) X(52)
24 131N 1048W 64 6 7(13) 4(17) 2(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21)
36 133N 1049W 34 55 12(67) 7(74) 3(77) 5(82) X(82) 1(83)
36 133N 1049W 50 19 13(32) 6(38) 5(43) 4(47) 1(48) X(48)
36 133N 1049W 64 4 6(10) 5(15) 3(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21)
48 140N 1050W 34 12 25(37) 15(52) 9(61) 9(70) 2(72) X(72)
48 140N 1050W 50 2 9(11) 11(22) 7(29) 7(36) 3(39) X(39)
48 140N 1050W 64 X 4( 4) 5( 9) 5(14) 5(19) 1(20) X(20)
72 155N 1050W 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 16(32) 17(49) 6(55) 1(56)
72 155N 1050W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 10(20) 3(23) 1(24)
72 155N 1050W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) 1(11)
96 165N 1055W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 11(17) 18(35) 8(43) 2(45)
96 165N 1055W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 4(15) 1(16)
96 165N 1055W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
120 180N 1065W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) 9(23) 5(28)
120 180N 1065W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8)
120 180N 1065W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 60 70 80 80 80 75 70
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI
NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 14-Nov-2006 21:00:03 UTC