ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 0900 UTC TUE NOV 14 2006 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 132N 1050W 34 51 12(63) 2(65) 2(67) 1(68) 1(69) X(69) 12 132N 1050W 50 5 5(10) 3(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) 12 132N 1050W 64 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 24 136N 1055W 34 30 22(52) 7(59) 3(62) 3(65) X(65) 1(66) 24 136N 1055W 50 3 6( 9) 4(13) 3(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) 24 136N 1055W 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 36 139N 1058W 34 14 26(40) 10(50) 6(56) 3(59) 2(61) X(61) 36 139N 1058W 50 1 5( 6) 6(12) 3(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19) 36 139N 1058W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 48 144N 1061W 34 4 21(25) 13(38) 8(46) 7(53) 2(55) 1(56) 48 144N 1061W 50 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 3(16) 2(18) X(18) 48 144N 1061W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 72 155N 1065W 34 1 5( 6) 11(17) 11(28) 10(38) 4(42) X(42) 72 155N 1065W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 6(11) 1(12) 1(13) 72 155N 1065W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 96 165N 1070W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 8(14) 12(26) 5(31) 1(32) 96 165N 1070W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 96 165N 1070W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 120 175N 1080W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 8(13) 5(18) 2(20) 120 175N 1080W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 120 175N 1080W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40 45 50 55 55 50 45 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 14-Nov-2006 08:35:04 UTC