ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 700 AM PST SUN NOV 19 2006 THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF SERGIO REMAINS EXPOSED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND CONVECTION CURRENTLY IS AROUND 75 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERNS FROM 1200 UTC REMAIN AT T3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE PICTURES INDICATE THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME FURTHER DETACHED...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT...WHICH STILL COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS. LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS...FROM 1254 UTC...INDICATED 30-40 KT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE SOME OF WHICH ARE PROBABLY OVERINFLATED DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/3. THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS STEERING THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER...THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE HAMPERING THE CYCLONE'S FORWARD MOTION. AS THE RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED SLOWLY TO THE WEST UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS...AS WELL AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE PULLED FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED...AND SERGIO IS EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW IN TWO DAYS. THIS REASONING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSSE. HOWEVER...BASED UPON THE CURRENT SATELLITE DEPICTION OF THE CYCLONE WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW COULD OCCUR FASTER THAN INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 15.3N 105.5W 35 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 15.4N 105.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 15.6N 106.2W 30 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 15.8N 107.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 21/1200Z 16.0N 108.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 22/1200Z 16.0N 110.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Nov-2006 14:35:03 UTC