ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 700 AM PST SAT NOV 18 2006 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATED THAT EARLIER TODAY THE CENTER WAS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. HOWEVER...NEW DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER AND THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL SUPPORT 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE OCEAN IS QUITE WARM...IT AINT ALL ABOUT THE OCEAN. ACCORDING TO THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER SERGIO RESULTING IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING. SOME GUIDANCE MAINTAIN OR RESTRENGTHEN SERGIO BUT THIS SOLUTION IS HARD TO ACCEPT AT THIS TIME WITH THE ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN THE WIND SHEAR. THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME INTENSIFICATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF...UNEXPECTETLY...THE SHEAR RELAXES A BIT. SERGIO APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT ABOUT 4 KNOTS. THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE HAS MATERIALIZED AND THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FORCE SERGIO ON A NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO UNTIL DISSIPATION IN ABOUT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 15.2N 104.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 15.8N 104.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 105.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 16.5N 107.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 16.5N 108.0W 25 KT 72HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 110.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 18-Nov-2006 14:35:03 UTC