ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE SERGIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212006 700 AM PST WED NOV 15 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 4.5 AND 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND IN FACT...AN 1152Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A SMALL EYE FEATURE EMBEDDED WITHIN A CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON THIS DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 65 KNOTS. SERGIO HAS BECOME THE 10TH HURRICANE OF THE 2006 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SINCE THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THE OCEAN IS WARM. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER AS THE SHEAR INCREASES. SERGIO IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND IS DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE SERGIO TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. BOTH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND TRACK GUIDANCE SHOW SERGIO STILL OVER WATER BUT RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT FIVE DAYS. THEREFORE...ALL INTERESTS IN THIS AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SERGIO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 12.1N 103.9W 65 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 12.2N 103.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 12.4N 103.6W 75 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 15.0N 104.3W 80 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 19.0N 107.0W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 15-Nov-2006 14:40:04 UTC