ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 100 AM PST FRI NOV 10 2006 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA IS RAPIDLY BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED AND MAY NOT EVEN BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE ANY LONGER. HOWEVER...JUST IN CASE ANOTHER BURST OF CONVECTION FIRES OFF NEAR THE CENTER...THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL ENTITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTER POSITION HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT BEST. A 10/0000Z TRMM OVERPASS ALONG WITH A 10/0042Z QUIKSCAT EDGE SWATH...BOTH OF WHICH CAME IN AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WAS ISSUED...SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD CENTER OF ROSA IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FURTHERMORE...THE CIRCULATION OF ROSA APPEARS TO BE GETTING DRAWN INTO THE LARGER DEVELOPING TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THE ROSA REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE OTHER DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC CONSENSUS MODELS. SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 450 NMI SOUTHWEST OF ROSA. THE ENHANCED SHEAR PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND...AND PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IN THE LONGER TERM. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT ROSA COULD DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER DISTURBANCE SITUATED TO THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 15.7N 105.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 10/1800Z 16.0N 106.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 11/0600Z 16.3N 106.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 11/1800Z 16.6N 106.9W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 10-Nov-2006 08:15:04 UTC