ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 700 PM PST THU NOV 09 2006 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A RATHER DISORGANIZED...SHEARED...TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING. SHIP A8GU7...QUALITY CONTROLLED FOR ACCURACY...REPORTED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 10 KT WINDS WITH A 1009 MB SEA LEVEL PRESSURE ABOUT 85 N MI EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER. BASED ON THE SHIP REPORT AND THE 30 KT DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR AS THE PRIMARY INHIBITOR...WEAKENING THE DEPRESSION TO A REMNANT LOW IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST FSU UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE SHOWS A SIMILAR OUTCOME. IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO FIX THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 360/4...DRIFTING NORTHWARD WITHIN THE SHALLOW LAYER FLOW OF A LOW- TO MID- LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. ROSA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN INCREASINGLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/FSU SUPERENSEMBLE/ECMWF/UKMET...WHICH REFLECT A SHALLOW TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 16.1N 105.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 16.9N 105.7W 30 KT 36HR VT 11/1200Z 17.3N 106.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 12/0000Z 17.8N 106.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 13/0000Z 19.0N 107.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 10-Nov-2006 02:40:03 UTC