ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 700 AM PST WED NOV 08 2006 THE VESSEL 4XGS LOCATED ABOUT 60 N MI NORTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER REPORTED 28 KT WINDS AT 1200 UTC...ALTHOUGH AN EARLIER QUALITY CONTROL CHECK INDICATED THAT THE SHIP'S WINDS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE HIGH. A QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM BUT THESE APPEAR TO BE INFLATED DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION. NONETHELESS THERE HAS BEEN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND SOME INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE SYSTEM WILL FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST TO ITS NORTH...WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE BELOW THE LATEST GFDL FORECAST. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN SHEAR...THE SYSTEM COULD WEAKEN SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THIS FORECAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN CENTER FIXES...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL POSITION REQUIRES SOME RELOCATION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. SOME ADDITIONAL RELOCATION MAY BE REQUIRED WHEN MORE VISIBLE IMAGES BECOME AVAILABLE. FOR NOW...THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 325/6. THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW STRONG IT BECOMES. A BROAD TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO DROP INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WOULD LIKELY TURN A VERTICALLY-COHERENT SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OR EVEN NORTHEAST. THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OF ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT I BELIEVE ITS INTENSITY PREDICTION IS A LITTLE HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ASSUMES THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE SHEARED OFF IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD AND THEREFORE MOVE LITTLE BY DAYS 3-5...IF IT SURVIVES THAT LONG. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 13.6N 104.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 14.3N 104.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 09/1200Z 15.3N 105.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 10/0000Z 15.9N 106.4W 45 KT 48HR VT 10/1200Z 16.2N 107.2W 45 KT 72HR VT 11/1200Z 16.5N 108.0W 40 KT 96HR VT 12/1200Z 16.5N 108.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 13/1200Z 16.5N 108.5W 25 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 08-Nov-2006 14:35:03 UTC