ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182006 200 PM PDT THU OCT 26 2006 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEVELOPING RAIN BANDS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT AS WELL AS A VERY SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT DUE TO THE RATHER LIMITED AREAL EXTENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE GFDL AND THE SHIPS BOTH INDICATE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITHIN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND WITH A FORECAST MOTION OVER SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 28C. THE GFDL SUGGESTS A WEAKENING BEYOND DAY 3 WHICH MIGHT BE DUE THERMODYNAMIC INFLUENCES. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 290/6...WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CENTRAL MEXICO. A MAJORITY OF THE LARGE SCALE MODELS...AND THE GFDL...INDICATE A MID- TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS... CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z MODEL RUNS FORECAST A MORE PRONOUNCED BUILDING OF THE RIDGE COMPARED TO THE EARLIER RUNS. THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKENING TREND OF THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST... TOWARD THE DEVELOPING WEAKNESS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS BASED OFF OF A CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...ECMWF...AND THE GFS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/2100Z 17.0N 104.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 27/0600Z 16.9N 105.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 27/1800Z 16.6N 107.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 28/0600Z 16.3N 109.4W 50 KT 48HR VT 28/1800Z 16.1N 111.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 29/1800Z 16.0N 115.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 30/1800Z 16.5N 118.0W 50 KT 120HR VT 31/1800Z 17.0N 121.0W 45 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 26-Oct-2006 20:35:03 UTC