ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 1500 UTC SUN OCT 22 2006 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 28(37) 15(52) X(52) X(52) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) X(17) X(17) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 25(33) 17(50) X(50) X(50) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) X(16) X(16) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 17(35) X(35) X(35) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) X(21) X(21) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULICAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 24(34) X(34) X(34) CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) X(17) X(17) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 3 41(44) 28(72) 3(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 9( 9) 20(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 6(13) X(13) X(13) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 168N 1098W 34 84 6(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) 12 168N 1098W 50 21 10(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 12 168N 1098W 64 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 24 180N 1107W 34 15 49(64) 13(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 24 180N 1107W 50 1 19(20) 11(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) 24 180N 1107W 64 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 36 199N 1107W 34 1 17(18) 41(59) 9(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) 36 199N 1107W 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) 6(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) 36 199N 1107W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 48 222N 1100W 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 28(45) 11(56) X(56) X(56) 48 222N 1100W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21) X(21) X(21) 48 222N 1100W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 72 260N 1070W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) X(13) 72 260N 1070W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 260N 1070W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50 55 65 60 20 0 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH NNNN
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