ZCZC MIAPWSEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PAUL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 2100 UTC SAT OCT 21 2006 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAUL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 29(32) 10(42) X(42) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 10(41) X(41) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 9(28) X(28) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) X(12) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) X(20) LOS MOCHIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 13(30) X(30) CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) X(22) MAZATLAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 7( 8) 23(31) 16(47) 16(63) 1(64) X(64) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) 9(24) 1(25) X(25) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 13(15) 4(19) X(19) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 162N 1084W 34 83 6(89) 1(90) X(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) 12 162N 1084W 50 19 12(31) 1(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) 12 162N 1084W 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 24 166N 1097W 34 22 45(67) 9(76) 3(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) 24 166N 1097W 50 1 22(23) 6(29) 2(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) 24 166N 1097W 64 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 36 175N 1107W 34 3 27(30) 26(56) 9(65) 6(71) X(71) X(71) 36 175N 1107W 50 X 5( 5) 15(20) 5(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) 36 175N 1107W 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 48 185N 1110W 34 1 10(11) 26(37) 15(52) 13(65) 1(66) X(66) 48 185N 1110W 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) 7(26) 1(27) X(27) 48 185N 1110W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 72 230N 1090W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 11(44) X(44) 72 230N 1090W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) 72 230N 1090W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 96 280N 1055W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 96 280N 1055W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 280N 1055W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 50 55 60 65 65 20 0 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 21-Oct-2006 20:35:03 UTC