ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE PAUL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 1100 PM PDT MON OCT 23 2006 ...PAUL ON A WEAKENING TREND...HEADING TOWARD SOCORRO ISLAND... A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM AGUA BLANCA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND FROM LA PAZ SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ON TUESDAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1100 PM PDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAUL WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST OR ABOUT 380 MILES ...615 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO AND ABOUT 495 MILES...795 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT PAUL IS WEAKENING AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PAUL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...28.30 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1100 PM PDT POSITION...18.0 N...111.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 24-Oct-2006 05:40:03 UTC