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Tropical Storm PAUL (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
200 PM PDT TUE OCT 24 2006
 
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING PAUL
INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE NOW UP TO 999 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT
BASED ON A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 53 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. WHILE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS
FOR THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN.  INDEED...PAUL COULD
DISSIPATE MUCH SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THIS FORECAST.
 
PAUL IS BEGINNING TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 020/12.  THE CYCLONE...OR ITS REMNANT...IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE JUST SOUTH OF OR VERY NEAR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN MOVE INLAND
OVER MAINLAND MEXICO BY 36 HOURS.
 
WHILE THE POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION APPEARS REMOTE...THE WATCHES
AND WARNINGS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT THIS TIME. IF THE WEAKENING TREND
CONTINUES...SOME OR ALL OF THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS COULD BE
DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 20.3N 111.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 21.7N 110.6W    35 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 23.0N 109.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 24.0N 107.7W    25 KT
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 24.5N 106.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 72HR VT     27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
 
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