ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 800 AM PDT THU OCT 12 2006 CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH ONLY ONE SMALL CELL REMAINING. OLIVIA BARELY MEETS THE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND AS SOON AS CONVECTION DISSIPATES... SO WILL THE DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 25 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS. A SLOW SPINDOWN OF THE VORTEX IS LIKELY DUE TO STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR ALOFT NEAR THE SYSTEM. OLIVIA HAS BEEN MOVING 080/8 BUT IS LIKELY TO START MOVING DUE EAST SOON. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE EASTWARD. ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MOTION SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST AS THE REMNANT LOW OF OLIVIA BECOME PART OF A LARGER DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF MEXICO. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND REMAINS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 17.7N 121.1W 25 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 17.7N 119.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 13/1200Z 17.6N 117.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 14/0000Z 17.5N 115.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 12-Oct-2006 14:45:04 UTC