ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 800 PM PDT WED OCT 11 2006 AFTER BECOMING A LOW CLOUD SWIRL EARLIER TODAY... SOME INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE RE-FORMED NEAR THE CENTER. THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. SINCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS OVER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS... SOME ADDITIONAL DEEP CONVECTION MAY STILL OCCUR NEAR THE CENTER TONIGHT. THEREFORE ADVISORIES ARE BEING MAINTAINED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER WE EXPECT OLIVIA TO SUCCUMB TO THE SHEAR... AND DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FAIRLY SOON. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 080/6... SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY CURRENT WHICH WILL STEER THE SYSTEM EASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS. THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL POSITION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 17.3N 122.7W 25 KT 12HR VT 12/1200Z 17.4N 121.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 13/0000Z 17.4N 119.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 13/1200Z 17.4N 117.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 12-Oct-2006 02:40:03 UTC