ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162006 200 PM PDT WED OCT 11 2006 OLIVIA IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH NO ACTIVE CONVECTION. THE CLOCK IS TICKING AND WITHOUT A RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION OLIVIA WILL DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...AND WITH THE CIRCULATION OVER MARGINAL SSTS...NO SIGNIFICANT REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 085/6. THE SHALLOW CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED IN A WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL CURRENT NORTH OF THE ITCZ AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DECAYING REMNANTS OF NORMAN. THE GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL OLIVIA DISSIPATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CENTER OF A WELL-CLUSTERED DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 17.0N 123.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 17.1N 122.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 12/1800Z 17.0N 120.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 13/0600Z 17.0N 118.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 11-Oct-2006 20:40:03 UTC