ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 0900 UTC MON OCT 09 2006 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 163N 1181W 34 32 13(45) 2(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) 12 163N 1181W 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 12 163N 1181W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 176N 1182W 34 5 30(35) 7(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) 24 176N 1182W 50 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 24 176N 1182W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 36 187N 1178W 34 1 13(14) 16(30) 4(34) 2(36) X(36) X(36) 36 187N 1178W 50 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 36 187N 1178W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 48 196N 1172W 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) 8(23) 4(27) X(27) 1(28) 48 196N 1172W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 48 196N 1172W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 72 210N 1155W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 6(13) 2(15) 1(16) 72 210N 1155W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 72 210N 1155W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 96 225N 1135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) 96 225N 1135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 96 225N 1135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 120 240N 1115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 120 240N 1115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 120 240N 1115W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35 40 40 35 30 25 20 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 09-Oct-2006 08:45:03 UTC