ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 15 2006 THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN PRODUCING A VERY LARGE AND IMPRESSIVE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...IT HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. RECENT TRMM AND AMSR-E OVERPASSES HAVE NOT PROVIDED ANY CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE TO HELP LOCATE THE CENTER. A QUIKSCAT PASS JUST RECEIVED INDICATES THAT IF THE CENTER IS NOT ALREADY ON THE COAST IT IS VERY CLOSE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT...AND THE RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS DOES NOT INDICATE ANY 35 KT WINDS THAT ARE NOT SUSPECT DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION. GIVEN THESE DATA NORMAN WILL REMAIN A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE MAIN INHIBITOR FOR STRENGTHENING IS NORMAN'S CLOSE PROXIMITY TO LAND. ON THE FORECAST TRACK NORMAN SHOULD MOVE INLAND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE THE INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT INDICATE NORMAN REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THERE IS STILL AN OUTSIDE CHANCE IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THEREAFTER... NORMAN SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE MAIN STEERING FEATURES REMAIN A MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND A RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE RATHER DIVERGENT TRACK GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT NORMAN STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL...THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ASSOCIATED FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 19.0N 104.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 19.7N 104.6W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 16/1200Z 20.7N 104.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 36HR VT 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 15-Oct-2006 15:05:04 UTC