ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM NORMAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152006 200 PM PDT MON OCT 09 2006 RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES FROM BOTH TRMM AND SSMI-S INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN ANY EVENT...NORMAN HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING AND DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO EXIST WITH SLIGHT BANDING FEATURES. 1800 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 55 KT FROM TAFB...AND 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND AFWA. HOWEVER...A 1350 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS DID NOT REVEAL ANY VECTORS OVER 35 KT AND AS A RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT. NORMAN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS...BUT IN A GRADUALLY INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR-TERM...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IN THREE OR SO DAYS AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO EVENTUALLY SUCCUMB TO THE INCREASING SHEAR. THIS REASONING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/6. NORMAN CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...NORMAN IS EXPECTED TO BE NORTH OF RIDGE AND BECOME EMBEDDED IN STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THERE IS A DICHOTOMY IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE. THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE FOLLOW THE ABOVE REASONING AND TAKE NORMAN TO THE NORTH AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST. ON THE OTHER HAND... THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFS MODELS ALL TURN THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST...EAST...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH. THE LATTER SCENARIO APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL...FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...AND IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 16.2N 117.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 16.9N 118.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 17.7N 118.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 18.6N 117.8W 40 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 19.5N 117.2W 35 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 21.0N 115.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 13/1800Z 22.5N 113.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 14/1800Z 24.0N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 09-Oct-2006 20:40:03 UTC