ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14-E REMAINS A SHEARED SYSTEM THIS MORNING... WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. HOWEVER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT UNTIL VISIBLE IMAGES PROVIDE A BETTER IDEA OF WHERE THE CENTER IS IN RELATION TO THE CONVECTION. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB IS BASED ON DATA FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED STATION ON CLARION ISLAND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 045/3. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HR AS IT IS CAUGHT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FEEDING INTO HURRICANE LANE. AFTER THAT...LANE SHOULD BE WEAKENING OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND ENOUGH RIDGING SHOULD DEVELOP NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE TO TURN IT TO A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT AFTER 96 HR THE SYSTEM COULD TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...BUT THAT DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH OF THE SYSTEM IS LEFT OVER COLDER WATERS AND WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST TRACK AT THIS TIME. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HR AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSED BY OUTFLOW FROM LANE INHIBITS DEVELOPMENT. THE SHEAR COULD DECREASE BY 60 HR...BUT THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT THAT TIME. BY 120 HR...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE A REMNANT LOW OVER 24C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 17.8N 114.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/0000Z 18.3N 113.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 17/1200Z 19.3N 112.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 18/0000Z 20.4N 112.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 18/1200Z 21.2N 112.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 19/1200Z 23.0N 114.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 20/1200Z 24.5N 115.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 21/1200Z 27.0N 116.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN/MAINELLI NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Sep-2006 14:50:03 UTC