ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142006 500 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 THE FIRST FEW IMAGES OUT OF THE GOES-11 ECLIPSE PERIOD INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 400 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS DEVELOPED SOME VERY DEEP AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION...AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON AN OBSERVATION AT 0600 UTC...VERY NEAR THE APPARENT CIRCULATION CENTER...BY A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN ELTZ7. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AS EVIDENCED BY DISPLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STRONG...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED...AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE VERY STRONG CONVECTION...ANY RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE INTENSIFICATION THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 045/04. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE DEPRESSION FEELS THE INFLUENCE OF HURRICANE LANE. BEYOND 36 HOURS...LANE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKENING AND THEREFORE LOSING ITS GRIP ON THE NEW CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD THEN RESULT IN A NORTHWARD TURN AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A MID- TO UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THIS SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BEYOND ABOUT 72 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1200Z 17.5N 114.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 17.9N 114.0W 35 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 18.9N 113.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 17/1800Z 19.8N 112.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 18/0600Z 20.8N 112.7W 40 KT 72HR VT 19/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 20/0600Z 24.0N 114.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 21/0600Z 26.0N 115.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Sep-2006 11:55:03 UTC