ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 16 2006 LANE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING AS THE EYE IS BECOMING MORE DISTINCT IN CONVECTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 102 KT FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES AND THE EXPERIMENTAL UW CIMSS ADT IS 105 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT...MAKING LANE THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2006 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON. LANE HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 350/09. THE STEERING IS BEING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO... WITH THE CYCLONE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO A WEAKNESS CREATED BY A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TODAY...THEY DISAGREE ON THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST NORTH OF LANE. THIS RESULTS IN SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING WHERE AND WHEN LANE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS ALLOW JUST ENOUGH RIDGING NORTH OF LANE TO PRODUCE A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION KEEPING THE CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. CONVERSELY...THE GFDL FORECASTS LITTLE OR NO RIDGING NORTH OF LANE RESULTING IN AN ALMOST DUE NORTH TRACK THAT TAKES THE CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. GIVEN THE GFDL'S RELIABLE PERFORMANCE THUS FAR WITH THIS HURRICANE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION. THIS RESULTS IN AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...TAKING LANE INLAND OVER MEXICO IN 12-18 HOURS. ONCE INLAND...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE INTERACTION OF THE CYCLONE WITH COMPLEX TERRAIN OVER MEXICO. THE DEEP LAYER STEERING WOULD TEND TO PRODUCE A NORTHEAST TURN BEYOND 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THE CYCLONE COULD CROSS THE VERY HIGH TERRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAINS. A MORE PLAUSIBLE OUTCOME IS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME DECOUPLED...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION TURNING NORTHEAST WHILE THE LOWER LEVEL CIRCULATION PARALLELS THE WESTWARD SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ONCE LANE MOVES INLAND. AS LONG AS LANE REMAINS OVER WATER...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING REMAINS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE WINDOW APPEARS THE BE CLOSING AS THE CYCLONE NEARS MAINLAND MEXICO. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE EAST...AND LANDFALL IS NOW EXPECTED SOONER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD BEYOND 12 HOURS. ONCE INLAND...RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED GIVEN THE CYCLONE'S SMALL SIZE...AND LANE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. IF LANE WERE TO MOVE A LITTLE LEFT OF THE FORECAST TRACK AND REMAIN OVER WATER LONGER...IT COULD BE STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 22.7N 107.0W 100 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 24.0N 107.1W 105 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 25.1N 107.5W 85 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 17/1800Z 26.2N 107.9W 60 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 18/0600Z 27.3N 108.5W 40 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 19/0600Z 28.5N 109.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 20/0600Z...INLAND $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Sep-2006 09:05:03 UTC