ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 15 2006 LANE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WITH A BAND OF VERY STRONG CONVECTION NOW WRAPPING TWO-THIRDS OF THE WAY AROUND THE ESTIMATED CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...TWO EARLIER MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATE THE EARLY STAGES OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE CURRENTLY 45 KT AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS BASED ON THE HIGHER OF THESE TWO ESTIMATES GIVEN THE APPARENT BANDING EYE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. LOCATING THE CENTER OF LANE WITH CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO BE DIFFICULT TO SAY THE LEAST. HOWEVER...THE LAST TWO MICROWAVE PASSES YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/12. LANE IS BEING STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER MEXICO. AS A RESULT...A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO TAKING LANE INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THEREAFTER...LANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. WHILE MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN...THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH LAND INTERACTION WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE PLACE. IF LANE INTERACTS WITH LAND MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...A WEAKER CYCLONE WOULD LIKELY NOT TURN NORTHEASTWARD. CONVERSELY...IF LANE REMAINS VERTICALLY COHERENT...IT WOULD TEND TO BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD BY THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD AND NOW SHOWS A TRACK INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...A SUBTLE TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS INTRODUCED AT DAY 5 TAKING THE CYCLONE INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RIDDLED WITH UNCERTAINTY. IN THE SHORT-TERM...LANE IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WHILE THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...SUCH A CLOSE APPROACH TO LAND MAKES ASSESSING POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTIONS DIFFICULT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES LANE WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO ALLOW IT TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. ACCORDINGLY... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LANE BECOMING A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...LANE IS EXPECTED TO BE THREADING THE NEEDLE BETWEEN THE BAJA PENINSULA AND MAINLAND MEXICO. SINCE A TRACK SLIGHTLY EAST OR WEST OF THE CURRENT FORECAST WOULD CAUSE LAND INTERACTION...SLOW WEAKENING IS SHOWN UNTIL THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO BY DAY 4...AT WHICH TIME RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. FINALLY...IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LANE IS A RELATIVELY SMALL SYSTEM...AND RAPID INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS...BOTH UP AND DOWN...ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 19.1N 106.0W 55 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 20.4N 106.8W 65 KT 24HR VT 16/0600Z 21.9N 107.8W 75 KT 36HR VT 16/1800Z 23.2N 108.9W 80 KT 48HR VT 17/0600Z 24.5N 109.4W 75 KT 72HR VT 18/0600Z 25.5N 109.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 19/0600Z 27.0N 109.5W 55 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 20/0600Z 28.0N 109.0W 40 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Sep-2006 09:05:03 UTC