ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132006 800 PM PDT THU SEP 14 2006 A 0024Z WINDSAT MICROWAVE OVERPASS REVEALED A DEVELOPING BANDING EYE FEATURE...AND THAT LANE HAS BEEN MOVING MORE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 55 AND 45 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE SHIPS...WHICH DOES NOT WEAKEN LANE AS RAPIDLY AS THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INDICATES. CONDITIONS REMAIN RIPE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IF LAND INTERACTION DOES NOT OCCUR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/5...JUST TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND A BIT SLOWER. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD REINFORCE A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL TURN LANE MORE NORTHWARD...AROUND MID PERIOD. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ABRUPT NORTHWARD MOTION AND A LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA BETWEEN MANZANILLO AND CABO CORRIENTES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 18.4N 105.3W 50 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 19.2N 106.3W 65 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 20.6N 107.4W 75 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 21.8N 108.3W 80 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 22.8N 109.3W 85 KT...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA 72HR VT 18/0000Z 24.0N 110.0W 70 KT...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA 96HR VT 19/0000Z 25.0N 110.5W 65 KT...NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA 120HR VT 20/0000Z 26.5N 110.5W 55 KT...OVER WATER $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Sep-2006 03:10:03 UTC