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Tropical Depression KRISTY (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
200 PM PDT THU SEP 07 2006
 
A 1428Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE LIMITED AND
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS BARELY SUPPORT A 25 KT TROPICAL CYCLONE.
CONSEQUENTLY...KRISTY COULD DISSIPATE AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE
HOSTILE STABLE AIR ENVIRONMENT.  THEREFORE...LITTLE...IF
ANY...CHANGE IN STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED UNTIL KRISTY
BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...WHICH COULD BE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/5...A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  KRISTY SHOULD MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION...WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH...THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS WITH EMPHASIS ON THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODELS...WHICH PREDICTED THE PAST WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
SLOWER...ERRATIC...24 HOUR MOTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      07/2100Z 15.9N 130.4W    25 KT
 12HR VT     08/0600Z 15.8N 131.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     08/1800Z 15.7N 132.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     09/0600Z 15.6N 133.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     09/1800Z 15.6N 134.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     10/1800Z 15.5N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     11/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
 
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